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Fear of Terror

by David Ropeik, Director of Risk Communication at the Harvard Center
for Risk Analysis [I thank him for making his column available to this website]

How are you feeling about dirty bombs these days? If you’re like many Americans, you’re a little more afraid than you were when you woke up Monday, before the government announced the arrest of alleged “dirty bomber”, someone apparently looking into detonating a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material. That arrest is a commendable success in the War on Terror. But it is also a noteworthy failure.  Because while we did a good job in catching one of the suspected bad guys and protecting our PHYSICAL safety, once again our government did little to help us deal with the TERROR of terrorism.

Dirty bombs, laced with radioactive materials that don’t explode when the bomb itself goes off, are weapons of fear more than of mass destruction. They are only dangerous to the people nearby when they go off. Even a really big dirty bomb would spread radioactive material over an area of only several blocks or so, and even if it was the nastiest kind of radiological isotope, it’s only dangerous if you ingest it, inhale it, or stand right next to it for several hours. If the radioactive material was made into some kind of fine powder and spread further than several blocks, the concentration would be too low to be threatening. Military research looked into using dirty bombs, and gave up. It turns out they make lousy weapons, if you want to do a lot of physical damage.

But oh, the fear they might cause! Just imagine the hysteria in any city where such a device was detonated. Take the 1979 accident at Three Mile Island, the nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, as an example. As steam built up inside the plant, Governor Richard Thornburgh ordered the precautionary evacuation of 3,500 pre-school children and pregnant women within 5 miles of the plant. Approximately a quarter of a million people from dozens of miles around the plant, fled. One Roman Catholic priest stood on the side of a road and as evacuees as they drove past, offered general absolution, the sacrament for those about to die.

But while our federal government had everyone’s attention as they announced the arrest of the alleged dirty bomber, they missed a golden opportunity to deal with the fear such a weapon might create. As they announced their success, and deservedly crowed about cooperation between the FBI, the CIA, and the Defense Department, they could have described these weapons, to help us keep our fears in perspective. At the same Justice Department briefing announcing the arrest, they SHOULD have had a panel of respected scientists who could put the risk of a dirty bomb in context. Trusted non-governmental experts COULD have helped the public understand that though the word radiation SOUNDS scary, the danger from this kind of weapon would be limited. The government COULD have reduced public uncertainty and apprehension about dirty bombs, so if such a weapon were to be used in the future, it might not invoke waves of panic.

But they didn’t. Nor did they tell us a few months ago what that color-coded alert chart means to you and me, with suggestions of what we should do when things are yellow or orange or red. Such tangible suggestions would help give us a sense of control and help us keep these constant alerts in perspective. And back during last fall’s anthrax attacks, the Bush administration didn’t let it’s own science experts, like the head of the CDC or the Surgeon General, do most of the talking. These are the kinds of experts we trust most, and trust in the people who are supposed to protect us helps us keep our fears in perspective. Instead we heard from politicians and Cabinet secretaries, and wondered about their motives, their agendas, and even if they knew what they were talking about.

The evidence is pretty clear that the federal government is not taking the terror part of terrorism as seriously as they should. Maybe this is because the Bush administration wants us to just stay afraid, so we’ll be more vigilant against terrorism, and also, perhaps, more supportive of the administration’s policies and spending. Perhaps they simply and honestly think that fighting the battle head on by catching the bad guys and protecting The Homeland, physically, is enough. That’s foolish, and ignores what Osama Bin laden said in the days after September 11th…that Al Qaeda’s true intention is that Americans live in fear.

Fighting fear isn’t just a way to make them feel emotionally safer. It actually makes them physically safer too. Frightened people make dangerous choices: to drive instead of fly, to buy guns, to take antibiotics they don’t need, reducing the effectiveness of those drugs when they really are sick. Fear can change the way we spend and invest, the way we behave toward our fellow citizens, change our minds about which civil liberties we’re willing to give up. The best way to defuse a terrorist’s weapon is to defuse the fear it can bring.

The government is to be thanked for all it is doing to prevent acts of terrorism. But in the name of public health, they must do more, and also fight back against the TERROR these attacks are really intended to provoke.

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